The Democratic Progressive Party, led by Lai, has secured an historic third term victory, a result that is likely to provoke disapproval from China.
Taiwan's election has resulted in the victory of Lai Ching-te, who will become the next president and mark a significant third term for the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). This outcome is likely to provoke China and escalate tensions between the two sides of the Taiwan strait.
In 2020, Lai was elected as vice-president to Tsai Ing-wen, and his recent victory signifies the continuation of a government that advocates for a sovereign Taiwan and a distinct national identity from China. During his tenure, there were significant cross-strait conflicts as China pursued its objective of annexing Taiwan.
Initial outcomes indicated that Lai had secured over 40% of the ballots, surpassing Hou You-yi of the rival party Kuomintang (KMT), with Taiwan People's Party coming in third place. Surveys conducted before the election had predicted a smaller margin for Lai.
After his declaration as the elected president of Taiwan, Lai declared that it was a triumph for the global community of democracies. He acknowledged the determination of the voters in standing against external forces, specifically mentioning Beijing's attempts to sway the election in favor of the DPP.
According to him, the citizens of Taiwan hold the authority to elect their own leader.
The DPP faced a setback in Taiwan's legislative yuan, losing control over its 113 seats. Lai acknowledged that their efforts were not enough and recognized the need for self-reflection. He promised to collaborate with the opposition parties and scrutinize their proposals as long as they are beneficial to the populace. This suggests that he expects a challenging parliament, with the opposition parties in the majority.
The addition of a third-party contender in the election had disrupted the usual voting predictions. Ko Wen-je, an ex-surgeon and mayor of Taipei City, campaigned with a "third option" for voters who were dissatisfied with the two dominant parties. Critics criticized Wen-je's campaign for being populist and lacking coherence, with minimal information on his strategies for managing China.
According to Huang Kwei-bo, a professor at National ChengChi University specializing in diplomacy, Lai's success can be attributed to the division within the main opposition parties which caused a delay and ultimately weakened the largest opposition party, the KMT, in their campaign preparations such as advertisements and policy discussions.
Lai, hailing from the more extreme faction of the DPP, has made a commitment to adhere to Tsai's cautious approach in managing relations between the US and China. This approach involves refraining from officially declaring Taiwan's independence, which could provoke Beijing, and instead acknowledging Taiwan's sovereignty as an existing nation while maintaining the current state of affairs. Beijing considers Taiwan as a part of its territory and has expressed its determination to reunite it with China, even if it means resorting to force.
The DPP has been labeled as a separatist party, with a strong disapproval towards Lai. Additionally, the party has taken action twice against Hsiao Bi-khim, the current vice-president who previously held the position of Taiwan's representative to the US.
The DPP positioned itself to the public as a party that exercises careful restraint, steering clear of confrontation while focusing on fortifying defenses and enhancing global partnerships, specifically with the US and its allies.
The KMT, a party that is also against Chinese authority, had accused the DPP of exacerbating the threat. They stated that if they were to win the election, they would strive to rebuild communication and amicable ties with China in order to alleviate tensions.
According to Lai, it is the responsibility of China to uphold peace in the region.
According to Amanda Hsiao, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, Lai's victory does not necessarily signify support for his policies towards cross-strait relations.
According to the expert, the KMT's failure to persuade voters of their modernized approach to address current geopolitical situations highlights their shortcomings and lack of adaptability since their previous reign in power. She made this remark in an interview with the Guardian.
According to Hsiao, Beijing is expected to respond to Lai's win by exerting more pressure, especially as his inauguration in May approaches.
According to her, they characterized Lai as a disruptive individual, which could lead to a certain level of anticipation for their reaction.
The goals are to have Lai describe the relationship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait in a manner that aligns with Beijing's desires, and to exude a calmer demeanor. Additionally, it is intended to convey to their domestic audience that the situation is under control.
According to Hsiao, the actions of pressure may not involve large-scale military exercises as seen in the past, but rather more subtle measures such as punitive trade actions, military operations, or grey-zone activities such as the recent uptick in meteorological balloons flying through Taiwan's airspace under its control.
The election was additionally centered on domestic concerns, including the economy and the DPP's image as a leader in promoting progressive ideals. Prior to casting his vote, Chou Yutao, a supporter of the DPP, stated, "As a gay person, I appreciate the DPP's strong stance on human rights, gay rights, and inclusivity towards the LGBTQIA community." He emphasized the significance of valuing our Taiwanese identity.
In the late 1980s, Taiwan transitioned from a long period of authoritarian rule to become a young democracy. It held its first fully democratic elections in the mid-1990s. Taiwan takes great pride and enthusiasm in its right to vote, which stands in stark contrast to the lack of voting rights in China.
For several weeks, rival groups toured Taiwan and organized extensive public gatherings in various cities and towns, drawing crowds of thousands. Citizens, including a significant number from Taiwan's sizable global community, returned to their hometowns to cast their votes in person.
25-year-old student Vivi Lin made a trip from the UK to Yilan, a northern city in Taiwan, to exercise her right to vote. She had to spend approximately 40,000 new Taiwan dollars (£1,000) for the plane ticket. Vivi describes the experience as a truly amazing one, as she voted alongside her grandparents. She is proud to be part of the first generation of democratic Taiwan and her upbringing has always emphasized the value of the current freedom and democracy in the country.
Lai's victory closely aligned with the predictions of pre-blackout polls, although within the campaign, there was mounting concern in the days leading up to the 10-day blackout period.